The razor-thin margin between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris in current polling suggests a highly competitive race, likely hinging on the outcomes in key swing states.

While an exact tie in the Electoral College count is improbable, it remains within the realm of possibility.

Here’s what could unfold in such an event, as per the NY Post.

The Likelihood of a 269-269 Split

How could an Electoral College tie come about? According to 270 To Win, here are three basic scenarios:

  1. Trump secures all the states he won in 2020, plus Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Meanwhile, Harris wins every state Joe Biden carried in 2020, along with North Carolina.
  2. Trump captures all his 2020 states, plus Michigan and Pennsylvania, while Harris retains all other Biden-won states.
  3. Trump wins all his 2020 states, along with Georgia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, and Harris wins all Biden’s 2020 states plus North Carolina.

An Electoral College tie has never occurred in U.S. history.

A tie could also theoretically result if some electors deviate from their pledged votes, opting for third-party candidates and thereby preventing any contender from achieving the necessary 270 electoral votes.

A simulation conducted by FiveThirtyEight, which ran 1,000 hypothetical elections, placed the probability of a tie or an unresolved result at just 0.2%.

Determining the President

The 12th Amendment outlines the procedure if the Electoral College reaches a 269-269 stalemate.

In this case, the newly elected House of Representatives would convene on January 6, 2025, to count the electoral votes. If no candidate holds a majority, the House would decide the outcome. Each state delegation would cast one vote, with a majority of 26 states needed to elect the next president.

Although lawmakers could technically consider three candidates, the practical choice would be between Trump and Harris.

Currently, Republicans control 26 state delegations, Democrats hold 22, and Minnesota and North Carolina are evenly split between the parties.

Selecting the Vice President

The 12th Amendment also specifies the procedure for electing the vice president in the event of a tie.

The newly elected Senate would convene, with each senator casting an individual vote to choose the vice president.

The Senate would select between the two vice presidential candidates who received the most Electoral College votes, likely Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz.

This process could result in a president and vice president from different political parties.

What Happens if Congress Fails to Decide?

If the House cannot elect a president by noon on January 20, the vice president chosen by the Senate would serve as acting president until a decision is reached.

Should neither the House nor the Senate reach a conclusion, the Speaker of the House would assume the presidency under the Presidential Succession Act of 1947.

Such a scenario has never occurred in U.S. history.

{Matzav.com}