Pollster Nate Silver expressed dissatisfaction with the tight numbers in the current presidential race, though he personally believes that former President Donald Trump is more likely to win against Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024.

“My gut says Donald Trump. And my guess is that it is true for many anxious Democrats,” wrote Silver, the founder of FiveThirtyEight, in a New York Times opinion piece on Wednesday.

Nevertheless, Silver cautioned voters not to place any weight on gut feelings, even his own, and urged acceptance of the fact that a “50-50 forecast” between Harris and Trump is exactly that — a toss-up.

Silver also emphasized that either candidate has the potential to outperform their poll predictions and secure a victory.

Regarding Trump, Silver pointed out that some believe his success may come from the phenomenon of “shy Trump voters,” where individuals polled support Trump but hesitate to openly admit it due to possible social backlash.

“There’s not much evidence for the shy-voter theory — nor has there been any persistent tendency in elections worldwide for right-wing parties to outperform their polls,” Silver stated.

He went on to suggest that many Trump supporters are quite open about their backing of him, and the stigma surrounding voting for him has diminished. A more likely challenge for Trump is “nonresponse bias,” which refers to pollsters failing to reach a representative number of his supporters.

Additionally, Silver noted that Democrats no longer hold a clear advantage in party identification, and Harris might have to contend with a “Hillary effect.” This occurred when undecided voters leaned away from Hillary Clinton during her campaign, hesitant to declare support for a female candidate.

Yet, Silver acknowledged the possibility that Harris could also be underrepresented in polls.

“On average, polls miss by three or four points,” he remarked, adding that if those margins shift in her favor, Harris could win both the popular vote and the Electoral College, potentially with the largest margin since President Barack Obama’s 2008 victory.

Still, Silver suggested that pollsters, wary of underestimating Trump again as they did in 2020, might introduce biases, either consciously or unconsciously, that favor him in their projections.

Ultimately, Silver concluded that while the race appears extremely close, it’s important to be open to the possibility of a decisive victory for one candidate. Significant shifts from the 2020 election could occur, potentially outpacing people’s gut instincts.

This is because even a minor polling error, similar to those in 2016 or 2020, could lead to a comfortable Electoral College victory for either contender.

“According to my model, there’s about a 60 percent chance that one candidate will sweep at least six of seven battleground states,” Silver explained.

{Matzav.com}