With less than a month until Election Day, former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are locked in a tight race, according to a new national survey from NBC News.

Conducted between October 4 and 8, the poll shows both Harris and Trump securing 48% of the vote in a direct matchup, while another 4% of respondents remain undecided or have chosen neither candidate, the network reported on Sunday.

A previous NBC News poll last month had Harris ahead by 5 points, with a lead of 49% to Trump’s 44%. However, that lead was within the poll’s margin of error.

Trump’s numbers saw a slight improvement when third-party candidates were considered, with 47% backing Trump, 46% supporting Harris, and 7% either undecided or opting for other candidates.

Despite Trump’s improvement, Harris had been leading by 6 points in a similar scenario when polled in September.

The latest survey, which included 1,000 registered voters, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

“Any momentum for Kamala Harris that we saw over the summer has come to a halt,” said Democrat pollster Jeff Horwitt, who worked on the poll alongside Republican pollster Bill McInturff. “The race is neck and neck.”

However, the poll also highlights lingering uncertainty among voters, with 10% indicating they could still change their preference, and some remaining undecided.

Moreover, voter interest in the outcome is at an all-time high, with many respondents saying the election will significantly impact their lives.

Third-party candidates could also play a role, with Trump gaining a slight advantage when they are included in the polling.

Voter turnout could also be key to the final outcome, the poll suggests. If groups that are more likely to support Republicans—such as men, white voters, and those without college degrees—turn out in larger numbers, Trump holds a 2-point lead over Harris, with 49% to 47%.

On the other hand, a higher turnout among Democratic-leaning groups—such as white voters with college degrees, women, and voters of color—would give Harris a 3-point edge, leading Trump 49% to 46%.

However, every result in the poll falls within the margin of error, making it impossible to declare a clear front-runner.

Further poll breakdowns revealed:

  • Harris holds a strong lead over Trump with Black voters (84%-11%), voters aged 18 to 34 (57%-37%), and white voters who hold college degrees (55%-41%).
  • Trump is ahead among rural voters (75%-23%), white voters overall (56%-42%), and whites without college degrees (65%-33%).
  • Women favor Harris by a margin of 55% to 41%, while men back Trump by 56% to 40%.
  • Independent voters are closely divided, with 44% supporting Harris and 40% siding with Trump.
  • Harris’s favorability rating stands at 43% positive and 49% negative, while Trump’s is similar at 43% positive and 51% negative.

The most important issues to voters, according to the poll, are abortion (22%), immigration and border security (19%), protecting democracy or constitutional rights (18%), and the cost of living (16%).

In terms of individual issues, Harris scores higher than Trump on abortion, healthcare, and competency, while Trump leads on border security, Middle East policy, and handling the cost of living.

{Matzav.com}