Colonel Richard Kemp, a former commander of British forces in Afghanistan, gave his insights to Israel National News – Arutz Sheva regarding the recent assassination of long-serving Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.

“Israel’s rapid attrition against Hezbollah in the last two weeks is unprecedented in any military campaign that I know of. Certainly, no other Western country has achieved anything even remotely close in any modern war,” Col. Kemp remarked.

Kemp highlighted the significant blows dealt to Hezbollah’s leadership through precise airstrikes and pager attacks, compounded by numerous IDF strikes over the past year since Hezbollah’s unprovoked aggression. “Key leaders have been progressively eliminated throughout that time as well as destruction of significant quantities of Hezbollah’s weapons capability,” he explained. He noted that Hezbollah retains a sizable arsenal of missiles, drones, and fighters, but stressed that a terrorist organization’s effectiveness is heavily reliant on its leadership structure. The dismantling of this command would severely cripple Hezbollah’s ability to coordinate large-scale attacks.

Kemp speculated that Nasrallah has likely already been replaced, though his absence represents a major setback. “He has headed Hezbollah for over three decades and it will take his successor a long time to become anything like as effective — assuming even that he survived for very long himself,” Kemp noted. He pointed out that lower-level replacements could be made, but the loss of accumulated experience and strategic insight was a significant blow to Hezbollah. He also mentioned the personal relationships terrorist organizations maintain, particularly with sponsors like Iran, as another challenge for Hezbollah in reestablishing itself. Kemp further added that many in Hezbollah’s leadership may now hesitate to step up out of fear of being targeted next.

When asked about the likelihood of Hezbollah being permanently neutralized, Kemp was cautious. “Israel has much more work to do before Hezbollah is effectively neutralized, and it is in the process of doing it. If they are able to maintain the current intensity of operations, there is every prospect they will succeed,” he said. Kemp also noted the deep-rooted unpopularity of Hezbollah within Lebanon, especially among Christians and Sunni Muslims, some of whom are celebrating Nasrallah’s death. He suggested that Lebanon’s internal factions may exploit Hezbollah’s weakened position to further erode its power base.

Kemp then discussed the potential impact on Iran, Hezbollah’s primary backer. “Iran will also be shocked by what is happening to their number one terrorist proxy. The ayatollahs certainly could not have foreseen this situation or anything like it,” Kemp observed. He pointed to several failures Iran has faced, including their inaction after the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and the failure of their April 14th missile attack on Israel. According to Kemp, these setbacks, coupled with Hezbollah’s decline, may leave the Iranian regime uncertain about how to proceed. “They are now the subject of ridicule across the Middle East, and they will find this intolerable,” Kemp said, emphasizing that Iran might now be questioning the future of their own regime.

Kemp advised against any ceasefire at this moment, asserting that now is not the time for Israel to pull back. “It is not time for Israel to ‘take the win’. When an enemy is on the back foot, that is the time to press forward with even greater intensity,” he urged. He dismissed critics from the U.S. and France, suggesting Israel ignore their calls for restraint and focus instead on securing victory.

Regarding whether a ground invasion of Lebanon is necessary given the Israeli Air Force’s successes, Kemp deferred to Israel’s leaders. “Only the IDF and Israel’s political leaders can judge whether or not a ground offensive will be needed. That depends on two things: how much more damage can be achieved from the air and how Hezbollah reacts,” he said. Kemp warned that relying solely on air operations could provide only temporary deterrence, advocating instead for large-scale ground efforts to dismantle Hezbollah’s operational capacity.

In closing, Kemp underscored the broader implications of defeating Hezbollah. “Decimation of Hezbollah — as well as for Hamas — is important not just for the immediate protection of Israeli citizens but also to demonstrate Israel’s strength across the Middle East,” he said, adding that this would send a message both to Israel’s enemies and to its regional allies who look to Israel for security against the common threat of Iran.

{Matzav.com}