Recent reports of the Hamas politburo moving from Qatar to Turkey mean the potential introduction of a new major player into a geopolitical struggle that has mostly circled the two poles of Tehran and Jerusalem.

“The reports are not confirmed, and as far as they’re not confirmed we’re only speculating. However, if they’re true, it would be the first time in Turkish history that [Ankara has harbored] a terrorist organization that seeks to destroy another country. It is against the traditional Turkish foreign policy,” said Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak, a researcher at the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern And African Studies at Tel Aviv University and an expert on modern Turkey at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS).

According to Israel’s Kan public broadcasting corporation, senior members of Hamas’s leadership relocated to Turkey following their recent expulsion from Doha. This report was confirmed by a senior Arab diplomat.

These reports came after American sources confirmed that Qatar had expelled Hamas leadership, which had been hosted in the country since 2012.

On Tuesday, Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesman Majed al-Ansari confirmed these reports at a press conference, stating, “The leaders of Hamas that are within the negotiating team are now not in Doha. What I can tell you very clearly is that the office of Hamas in Doha was created for the sake of the negotiating process. When there is no mediation process, the office itself doesn’t have any function.”

U.S. sources further claimed that this shift, which occurred days after the reelection of former President Donald Trump, was a result of American pressure on Doha following Hamas’s rebuff of a recent ceasefire proposal.

Ankara has denied the reports.

On Monday, a senior Turkish diplomat said, “Members of Hamas’s political bureau occasionally visit Turkey. However, claims that the political bureau has relocated to Turkey do not reflect the truth.”

Hamas has also repudiated the assertions. In a recent Telegram post it “denied what some Israeli media outlets had circulated about Hamas leadership leaving Qatar to Turkey.”

Gallia Lindenstrauss, a senior research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) at Tel Aviv University, explained that Turkey’s unwillingness to openly associate with the full span of the Hamas organization is not new.

“Turkey emphasizes the difference between Hamas’s political wing and Hamas’s military wing and has claimed over the years that it has tried to moderate Hamas and facilitate political dialogue among the Palestinians. If Turkey will now host the headquarters of Hamas, it will make it harder for Ankara to claim that it only supports Hamas’s political wing,” Lindenstrauss told JNS.

She further explained that this outward appearance can sometimes be duplicitous. “Already, Israel has found evidence of the involvement of Hamas operatives residing in Turkey in terrorist activity aimed at harming Israelis,” she said.

For Hamas, a move to Turkey seems to be the most natural option. Many families of Hamas’s exiled leadership already reside in the country. Furthermore, the current leadership of Turkey under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been a consistent pillar of support for the organization throughout the current war with Israel.

Erdogan in the past said that he “firmly backs” Hamas. “No one can make us qualify Hamas as a terrorist organization. Turkey is a country that speaks openly with Hamas leaders and firmly backs them,” she said. The Turkish government had also previously boasted that Turkish hospitals were being used to treat more than 1,000 Hamas members throughout the war.

The Turkish government has been a severe critic of Israel. Erdogan has accused Israel of genocide on many occasions. Most recently, Ankara denied a plane carrying Israeli President Isaac Herzog access to Turkish airspace.

While Hamas may view a move to Turkey as a soft landing in a safe harbor, for Ankara, accepting Hamas would be a risky and multifaceted move in a complex geopolitical game. According to experts, there are many factors influencing Turkey’s decision.0 First and foremost, Turkey is interested in Hamas’s survival as a potential ally. “Turkey does not want to see the Oct. 7 war end with Hamas being eliminated, and hence, it is willing to assist it now,” said Lindenstrauss.

Yanarocak added that such a move would likely be a boon for Erdogan’s approval rating. “The main Turkish objective in hosting Hamas is to improve their public relations and boost Erdogan’s public approval at home,” he said. Pressure from the Islamist opposition in Turkey may be pushing Erdogan to adopt a more radical tone in his policy, he added.

Yanarocak also pointed out that inviting Hamas may be a move in an even more complicated game involving Turkey’s interests in northern Syria. For many years, Turkey has been waging a shadow war against Kurdish militant groups in Syria. Ankara has classified many of these militias as terror groups but has failed to convince Western countries to follow suit.

“Turkey may be more interested in acquiring an advantage in a different theater, [that] of northern Syria, and may be using Hamas as a trump card in this area,” Yanarocak told JNS. “From Turkey’s point of view, the PYD/YPG [the Democratic Union Party/People’s Protection Units, a Kurdish left-wing political party and a Kurdish militia] in northern Syria is a terrorist group. The United States does not consider this entity as a terrorist organization,” he explained. According to him, Ankara may be attempting to use Hamas as a “mirror for the West” to advance its agenda in Syria.

Beyond the realpolitik considerations behind Turkey’s drawing closer to Hamas, there are also ideological currents involved. Ever since the Muslim Brotherhood was weakened in Egypt, Islamic State was destroyed and the Gulf states moved toward modernization, radical Sunni Islam has been homeless. In the aftermath of these developments, Turkey has emerged as one of the epicenters of Muslim Brotherhood Islamism.

Yanarocak described Turkey’s recent foreign policy agenda as “Muslim Brotherhood-led.”

“Together with Qatar, Turkey is now most likely to lead the Muslim Brotherhood movement,” he said. “Qatar is giving financial support and Turkey logistical political and infrastructural support for the movement. It is unclear if the nature of Turkey’s support will be exclusively political or will include military aspects, however considering Turkey’s position in the West I think it is likely that at least in the first stage this would be limited to political support,” he added. “The driving force here is an Islamist neo-Ottomanist-Muslim Brotherhood blended Turkish policy,” he said.

Hostage negotiations 

Turkey’s new potential role as host for the Hamas political bureau has thrust Ankara into the center of hostage mediation efforts with Israel. Pouring fuel on the rumors, Israel Security Agency (Shin Bet) chief Ronen Bar recently visited Turkey, meeting with Ibrahim Kalin, head of the Turkish intelligence agency (MIT). Israel for its part has vehemently denied any role for Turkey in hostage negotiations. Israeli officials have openly stated that Turkey would “not take a role in mediation efforts” after Qatar withdrew from the position. An emerging alternative candidate for the position is Egypt. Despite these assertions, Turkey’s hosting of Hamas leadership would give them valuable leverage over the organization. Qatar had previously claimed that its role as Hamas’s host was the focal point of its influence over the organization. Erdogan has also previously put himself forward as a mediator in the hostage negotiations.

“On the face of it, such a decision is a blow to Turkish-Israeli relations, but it seems that this might also create the opportunity for Turkish attempts to mediate,” Lindenstrauss told JNS. “How open Israel will be to such mediation attempts is questionable, but if Turkey will indeed host Hamas headquarters, that will give it leverage over Hamas that it did not have until now. As can be seen from the recent visit of Ronen Bar to Turkey, on the issue of releasing the hostages Israel does not have the luxury to completely dismiss any mediation offered to it,” she added.

Yanarocak agreed with the assessment, saying, “We can understand why Shin Bet head Ronen Bar paid the visit to Turkey. As far as I understand Turkey is becoming more and more involved in the issue of the kidnapped Israeli hostages. Turkey is increasingly playing a huge role, a very ambitious role, but there is a huge question mark as to whether Turkey will be able to fulfill its objectives and if Turkey can deliver,” he said.

Washington for its part has exerted significant pressure on Ankara to move away from its alliance with Hamas.

“What I would say on behalf of the United States is that we don’t believe the leaders of a vicious terrorist organization should be living comfortably anywhere, and that certainly includes in a major city of one of our key allies and partners,” said U.S. State Department spokesman Matthew Miller. “A number of these individuals are under U.S. indictment, have been under U.S. indictment for some time, and we believe that they should be turned over to the United States,” he added. The U.S. Treasury also moved ahead with sanctions against six Hamas officials, including three based in Turkey, possibly in response to these developments.

However, of all the factors restraining Turkey from an open alliance with Hamas, the main one seems to be its central position in NATO.

“As a member of NATO and of the Western alliance it would be a great harm to Turkey’s foreign policy to host Hamas,” Yanarocak explained. However, Turkey’s critical control of the Bosphorus Strait and the Black Sea, as well as its potentially influential position in relation to the Russo-Ukrainian war, will likely allow for some obstinance from Ankara, he added.

“In terms of Europe, the Trump administration may seek to leverage Turkey’s good relationship with Ukraine and Russia to advance negotiations. In this sense Turkey is an indispensable player in NATO, regardless of their role in the Middle East,” he said.

Lindenstrauss further added that regardless of Washington’s dissatisfaction, Turkey’s position in NATO is not purely dependent on the Americans. “The United States has voiced sharp objection to the possibility that Turkey will host Hamas headquarters. This will likely add to the sources of tension between the United States and Turkey, but in itself cannot undermine Turkey being part of NATO because there is no clause in the charter of the alliance to expel a NATO member,” she explained.

(JNS)