The penultimate day of July in Tehran was partly cloudy, but Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh’s disposition was entirely sunny as he attended the swearing-in of Iran’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian. The two men hugged, raised their hands together and made victory signs.
A few hours later, as Mr. Haniyeh slept soundly in the Tehran guesthouse where he was staying, a remote signal detonated the explosive device under his bed, hurrying him and his bodyguard to their eternal deserts.
What was notable about that assassination—and, similarly, about the killings of five Iranian nuclear scientists over the decade prior—was the apparent involvement of Iranian citizens.
Mossad, of course, has been blamed (by some—credited, by others) for the killings, and reasonably so. But it is highly unlikely that an Israeli national could have infiltrated the security personnel who had responsibility for ensuring the guesthouse room’s safety. The device had to have been planted, even if at Mossad’s direction, by an Iranian.
One of those aforementioned late scientists, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, met his fate on November 27, 2020, while driving an armored vehicle on a road near Tehran, accompanied by a convoy of three armored vehicles. Once the journalistic smoke cleared, it emerged that Mr. Fakhrizadeh had been killed by a large automated gun that was controlled remotely by Mossad agents outside of Iran. The gun’s parts had been smuggled by unknown parties into the country; the weapon was, it was reported, assembled and placed into position by Iranian nationals.
At the very end of 2023, Iran executed three men and one woman for “collaboration with the Zionist regime.” During the first six months of 2024, Iranian authorities executed 249 people (for various crimes, but most for anti-government activity).
In 2022, protests against the Iranian government raged across the country after Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old woman, was arrested for not wearing a hijab, and died in custody, allegedly after being beaten.
Videos of the protests showed chanting of things like “Death to the dictator,” a reference to the country’s “Supreme Leader,” Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
The protesters included women, men and teenagers, and the protests only ended when they were put down by force. Iran’s Human Rights Activists News Agency reported that at least 530 protesters were killed by security forces and some 20,000 were arrested.
Significantly, the average age of those detained was 15. Equally significant is the fact that, while large protests no longer occur, sporadic demonstrations have persisted, and the hijab law has, according to reports, been increasingly ignored.
What’s more, Iran’s most recent parliamentary election saw the lowest turnout since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, with only an estimated 8.2% of the population participating in the routine rubber-stamping of the Ayatollah-designated “Death to America, Death to Israel”-chanting candidates.
Add to all that the fact that the rial, Iran’s currency, thanks to the effects of Western sanctions on Iranian oil, has plunged in value, causing great financial distress for typical Iranians, many of whom have seen their life savings go up in refinery smoke.
Not to mention that various groups composed of former citizens of Iran living in Europe and the West—in what is called the Iranian Diaspora—actively oppose the current Iranian theocracy and agitate for an uprising of Iranians to overthrow their Islamist overlords.
If the “Supreme Leader” is foolhardy enough to, chalilah, launch a genocidal attack against Israel, his regime may meet a violent end. The US has sent two aircraft carriers and their accompanying warships and attack planes to the Gulf of Oman, as well as a guided-missile submarine. Israel, of course, has its own military arsenal, including nuclear weapons. And, above all, Hashem is klal Yisrael’s tzur.
But even if Mr. Khamenei demonstrates restraint, the mullocracy may be moribund.
To be sure, it’s in no danger, unfortunately, of imminent expiration. But the signs are there.
One might even say—after all, it was Belshatzar’s fall, foretold in the spectral words menei menei tekeil ufarsin, that yielded the ascent of the Persian empire—that the writing is on the wall.
To read more, subscribe to Ami
Recent Comments