Three weeks ago, the leaders of China and Russia declared that the friendship between their countries “has no limits” as they met in Beijing on the eve of the Winter Olympics. But that was before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a gambit that is testing just how far China is willing to go. The nuclear-armed neighboring giants have grown closer in recent years, raising the specter of an alliance of authoritarian states that could challenge a U.S.-led democratic West in a new Cold War. Yet China has much to lose in such a scenario, and President Xi Jinping has spoken out against the “Cold War mentality” of those who portray his country’s rise as a threat. The emergence of a China-Russia axis is far from a foregone conclusion. Trade with Europe and the United States is a major driver of China’s economic growth, even as its estrangement with the U.S. and its appetite for energy have led it to deepen ties with Russia. “The ongoing conflict in Ukraine will reveal whether there is a deeper bond or whether the relationship is essentially transactional,” Anthony Saich, a China expert said in a Q&A posted on the website of Harvard University’s Ash Center for Democratic Governance and Innovation. He outlined three possible actions that would indicate “China has thrown its lot in with Russia.” These include Beijing using a veto, rather than an abstention, of any U.N. resolution to criticize Russia’s actions; recognition of a puppet regime in Ukraine put in place by Russia; and a refusal to call the attack an invasion even after civilian deaths are clearly confirmed. China, along with India and the United Arab Emirates, already abstained from voting on a U.N. Security Council resolution Friday demanding Russia stop its attack on Ukraine. Russia vetoed it. China abstained again on another vote on Sunday, though it was a procedural one not open to veto. “The two abstentions show that China has adopted a more prudent attitude than before amid the extremely broad criticism and protest of the world against Russia’s all-round attacks,” said Shi Yinhong, an international relations expert at Renmin University of China. Li Fan, a Russian studies professor at Renmin, said that China and Russia have “a neighborly, friendly strategic partnership” but that China isn’t taking sides in the current crisis. “It is not that China supports Russia’s military operation,” she said. Russia’s move to put its nuclear forces on high alert Sunday, escalating the crisis, may make China more cautious. This balancing act helps explain Beijing’s sometimes contradictory positions on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the assiduous efforts of officials to avoid getting pinned down on certain questions — including whether they call what’s happening an invasion. China has said that the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all nations must be respected — a stance that runs counter to an invasion — while also opposing sanctions on Russia and blaming the U.S. and NATO’s eastward expansion for being the root cause of the crisis. “China is trying to have its cake on Ukraine and eat it too,” Asia Society president and former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd wrote in a post on the Asia Society Policy Institute website. He noted that China has lifted import restrictions on Russian wheat, which could offset some of the economic […]

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