Wishful Withdrawal Windfall // Could a perceived lack of U.S. resolve have an upside?

The two barely discernible dots on the video showing the ascent of an American military plane from Kabul were horrifying emblems of the desperation of Afghans after the Taliban takeover of their country.

Because the dots were people, falling from the exterior of the plane, to which the would-be refugees had clung until they were sheared off as the plane gained speed. Their gambit ended with their fatal plunges to the ground.

Another gruesome manifestation of Afghans’ terror of the Taliban was evident when the crew of the plane realized that the plane’s landing gear hadn’t fully retracted. Peering through a porthole at the wheel well, they saw the remains of Afghans who had stowed away there and had been crushed to death.

The fear that led to those Afghans’ tragic attempt to flee the Taliban is shared by tens of millions of their countrymen, who are not reassured by a Taliban spokesman’s claim that the current movement is a new, improved, benign version of radical Islam. Afghans know better, remembering how, in 1996, when the Taliban first took over the country, its leaders likewise pledged moderation but wasted no time imposing brutal measures against citizens and turning Kabul’s central soccer stadium into an arena for public executions and amputations. There are already reports of murders and beatings.

And then there’s the larger concentric circle of fear, the one felt by other nations and their supporters, who see the US’s withdrawal from Afghanistan, although planned for years and despite the fact that the Taliban’s return was inevitable, as the abandonment of an ally. The goal of fostering a responsible democracy in the country was always a pipe dream, considering the country’s culture of corruption and violence. But still.

Among the fearful are some supporters of Israel. According to a HarrisX Overnight poll obtained by Jewish Insider, more than two-thirds of Americans see the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan as a threat to Israel,

For his part, former Israeli Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon expressed that sentiment in a tweet, asserting that, while Israel should not give up hope for what the Gemara describes as “their work will be done for them by others,” meaning the US’s standing up to Iran, she must be ready, too, to adopt Hillel’s “If I am not for myself, who will be for me?”
But then there’s the optimistic take on the wages of the withdrawal suggested by veteran Republican foreign policy official and Trump administration special Iran envoy Elliott Abrams.
In light of the opening provided by the Abraham Accords, Mr. Abrams asserts, and the recent announcement by Israel and Morocco of imminent establishment of full, formal diplomatic relations, Arab nations’ fear of abandonment by the US could rebound to Israel’s benefit.
“Simply put,” he wrote in a blog post, “Arab states face numerous threats, and see their region as one where Iran, Turkey, and Israel are the most powerful nations…
“What is happening in Afghanistan will deepen the impression among Arab governments that they cannot rely on the United States to protect their security as they used to. So those states have increasingly drawn the conclusion that they have one neighbor who, unlike Iran or Turkey, poses no threat to them, and who continually displays a firm willingness to use military power against its enemies. That’s Israel.”

Add its high-tech achievements and her close alliance with the US even while maintaining working relationships with Russia and China, Mr. Abrams writes, and Israel, once seen by other Middle Eastern and Islamic states as a pariah if not an outright enemy, becomes a tantalizing potential ally.

It’s an intriguing possible silver lining to the cloud that is the perceived waning of American geopolitical reliability.

Should the optimistic scenario prove more than wishful thinking, and Israel indeed comes to be seen as an important ally by Arab and Muslim nations, the Abraham Accords negotiated by Jared Kushner and Avi Berkowitz just over a year ago may well prove to be the Trump administration’s most important positive legacy.