Scott Brennan stood powerless in the Iowa Democratic Party’s war room in the wee hours of Feb. 4 as efforts to report 2020′s first presidential caucuses results failed spectacularly. But the Des Moines lawyer had been worried for years. He had been the Iowa Democratic chairman when Barack Obama won in 2008, and since had seen the state trending solidly Republican, with President Donald Trump easily carrying it in 2016. Iowa’s swing state days were gone, he thought. “It’s over man,” Brennan said in February. But there are signs Iowa may be competitive again. Deep concerns about the economy and dissatisfaction with Trump’s handling of the coronavirus have changed dynamics of the race. Several recent polls have showed a close race between Trump and Joe Biden, and operatives in both parties also say the Republican hold on the state is weakening. Even though he has showered the state with attention, and aired more than $2.5 million in ads since June, Trump has been unable to put Iowa away, despite Biden’s absence from Iowa since February and his campaign’s only recent start to TV advertising. Vice President Mike Pence is scheduled to campaign for Trump in Des Moines on Thursday. “I think the environment was pretty good for Trump in February. Then the world turned upside down,” said veteran Republican operative David Kochel, who is based in Iowa but has been a senior adviser to GOP presidential candidates Mitt Romney and Jeb Bush. Iowa’s six Electoral College votes hardly make it a trove in the quest for the 270 it takes to win. However, Iowa, where Trump won by 9.4 percentage points in 2016, echoes the trend in Ohio, where Trump won by 8 but is now in a pitched battle with Biden. The tightening in Iowa and Ohio are warning signs for Trump in other northern states where he won in stunning fashion in 2016. “I believe it is a close race in Iowa,” former Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack, a Democrat, said. “And if it’s a close race in Iowa, that means we win Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.” Just as Trump’s perceived advantage in the state has narrowed, Sen. Joni Ernst is also in a surprisingly competitive race with Democrat Theresa Greenfield. Ernst has been the target of a flood of attack ads from Democrats. And while Trump is in a dead heat with Biden, Ernst in recent polls is trailing her challenger by more. Democrats and Republicans say 2020 never started as a wide lead for Trump in Iowa. The 2016 margin was fueled by mistrust, even among some Democrats, of Hillary Clinton, who complained about the Iowa caucuses and only barely won in 2016 after finishing third in 2008. Still, Republicans had been on a decade-long roll that included Trump’s win, as well as capturing Iowa’s second U.S. Senate seat, both houses of the legislature and the governorship. The rightward lurch betrayed two decades as a perennial presidential swing state where this century Republican George W. Bush had lost then won by less than a percentage point and Obama won twice. In 2018, Democrats showed signs of resurgence, even though Republican Kim Reynolds became the first woman to be elected Iowa governor. A majority of Iowa voters backed a Democrat for U.S. House, and two, notably women, ousted […]

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